Forecasting
Forecasting helps you project future outcomes based on historical data, trends, and business assumptions. In planning, forecasts play a critical role in anticipating revenue, expenses, operational needs, and strategic decisions. Unlike budgets, which are typically created once for a fixed period, forecasts are frequently updated to reflect the latest information, enabling organizations to stay agile and respond quickly to changing conditions.
Lumel EPM facilitates this process by allowing you to quickly create forecasts on top of your semantic model and also adjust them on the go, based on changing information.
Forecast from scratch or use existing data to forecast future periods.
Create rolling forecasts by copying a period range, averaging it, or using formulas to initialize forecast values.
Use integrated time intelligence and time extension features to generate half-year or fiscal-period forecasts.
The steps to forecast include:
Creating a forecast measure
Specifying the forecast period range
Configuring values for closed and open periods of a forecast; configure default values and open period values for data input type forecasts to create automatic rolling forecasts
Lumel EPM also supports:
Updating actuals and closing the required past periods
Extending forecasts to cover future periods
Distributing deficits
Reforecasting,
Configuring user access controls for forecasting, and much more.
In this section, you’ll learn how to configure all the above and a range of customization options available.
1. Generate a forecast
To create a forecast, select the Forecast Measure option from the Plan tab. The forecast dialog box allows you to configure forecasts for open (future) and closed (past) periods.
1. Measure name
By default, the forecast measure is named ‘Forecast’. This field can be updated to a relevant column name.
2. Forecast Period
You can choose the time frame for which the forecast measures will be generated. Click the calendar icon and select and drag the desired months to configure the range. To navigate between years, use the arrows.
The forecast period should include a start period and an end period as a range.
The range can be a calendar year, a fiscal year, or a custom range. For example, Jan 2025–Dec 2025, Apr 2025–Jun 2026, etc.
The forecast period can include both past and future periods.
If auto-close is enabled, the periods preceding the current month/quarter/half-year/year will be automatically closed for forecast; open forecast measures will be generated for the future periods.
If auto-close is disabled, open forecast measures will be created for the entire forecast period configured. You can then manually close the required past periods.
Lumel EPM's time intelligence automatically determines the close and open periods for the remaining measures in the planning sheet that fall outside the range of this forecast period.
In our example, the forecast period is automatically determined as Jan 2025 to Dec 2025 based on the current date. We will retain the same period.
3. Closed Period
As mentioned above, new forecast measures will be created for past or closed periods as well. If you have actual data for 2025 in your planning sheet and are preparing a forecast for 2026, 2025 will be considered the closed period. Lumel EPM provides two options for populating closed forecasts: Measure and Formula.
Measure
The Linked Measure dropdown option allows you to select native measures, data input measures, formula measures, or other forecast measures as the source for closed periods. For example, if you select Revenue, a native measure, the closed periods will get the values from this native measure based on the corresponding months/quarters/years.
A sample result after applying the 'Revenue' native measure for the closed period:
In another example below, we have chosen a formula measure (Gross Profit) for the closed periods while forecasting profit.
Here is a sample result after applying the 'Gross Profit' formula measure for the closed period:
Likewise, you can also use data input measures or other forecast measures to populate closed periods.
Formula
You can also populate closed forecasts using Lumel EPM's extensive selection of built-in formulas. Select 'Formula' from the dropdown, and enter the formula as required.
The result is shown below:
Changed your mind about using a data input measure for closed periods? To reconfigure values for open and closed periods, you do not need to create forecast measures again; instead, use the edit forecast measure and reforecast options.
4. Open Period
Lumel EPM offers a range of options to configure open forecasts. Open forecast values can be sourced using one of the three options: measures, formula, or values entered using the data input option.
Measure
The Measure option allows you to select native measures, data input measures, formula measures, or other forecast measures as the source for open periods.
If your data source already includes the projections, you can use them to populate the open period forecasts. For this, select the required native measure using the Measure option. In the example below, we used a formula for the closed periods and native measure values for the open period.
You can hide the native measure after creating the forecast to avoid displaying the data twice.
Formula
You can apply formulas to native or inserted visual measures to generate forecasts. In this example, we've created a revenue forecast by multiplying 1.1 to the projected revenue (a native measure), assuming a 10% increase.
'Measure' and 'Formula' type configurations do not allow editing forecast measures. Use the 'Data Input' type to allow users to input the forecast measures.
Data input
You can let the open period measures be of the data input type, allowing users to enter values. You can specify a default value if you choose to manually input forecast values. The default value can be a static value, a measure, a formula, or it can be left blank.
a) Static value
The specified static value will be used as a default value when the configured forecast values are empty. In the example, a forecast has been created for revenue. Q1 and Q2 are closed; for quarters Q3 and Q4, the values have been configured with the native 'Revenue' measure and left blank, respectively.
We have configured 120 million as the default forecast value:
The result is shown below. The Q3 values are copied from the corresponding revenue measures. Since Q4 was left blank, the configured default value is used.
b) Measure
Instead of a static value, you can select any visual measure (data input, formula, or other forecast measures) or native measure as the default forecast value. We have reconfigured the same below:
c) Formula
You can also use a formula as the default value for data input forecast measures. In this case, we set the default forecast value to 90% of the previously forecasted revenue.
d) Blank
You can leave the forecast input measures blank without specifying any default value by selecting 'None'. In the example below, we reconfigured the previous example to 'None'.
2. Configuring the forecast
Lumel EPM allows you to choose different methods to populate the open forecast values and also create rolling forecasts seamlessly.
1. Target period
You can split the forecast period into shorter time frames or configure the forecast for the whole period. In this case, we have split the forecast period into 3 parts: January to March, April to June, and July to December.
Click on the calendar icon to specify the range.
Use the Copy Source drop-down to choose the source of values for the selected range.
Apply the required configuration to generate values for the forecast.
Click on Add Range to add the next time frame. To delete a specific time frame, click the bin icon next to it.
Click Save.
You can also configure the forecast for the entire period at once, as shown below.
2. Select source
You can choose any of the options listed below to populate the forecast:
None: To keep the fields blank and enter values manually.
Import From File: To upload forecast values from a file at once. You can download the sample template file with the selected range, fill the values in it, and upload the same.
Use a measure: To select values from any of the native or visual measures available.
3. Apply operation
There are 3 different methods that you can use to generate a forecast:
Period range: The values from a specific period range will be used to initialize the forecast. In this case, we have used the revenue from Q4 2024 (Source Periods) to populate the forecast for Q1 2025 (Target period). The duration of the period range should match the duration of the target period. E.g., if the target period is 6 months, then you must select a source period range spanning 6 months.
Single period: The values from a specific month will be used to initialize the forecast. In this case, we have used the revenue from June 2024 to populate the forecast for July to September 2025.
Average of period range: The average of a custom time period will be used to initialize the forecast. In this case, we have used the average revenue from Jan 2022 to Dec 2023 to initialize the forecast.
4. Copy period range: The time frame for which to copy data from the source measure.
3. Analysing the forecast
Let's look at the forecast generated with the configurations in the earlier sections.
Closed period forecasts
The forecast measure generated for previous or closed periods will be greyed out and cannot be edited. Refer to section 1, generating a forecast to learn more about configuring closed periods.
Forecast using period range
In the example, we've used the Sales measure from Oct to Dec 2023, to populate for forecast from Jan to Mar 2024.
Forecast using single period
We've used the revenue from December 2022 to create the forecast from April to June 2024.
Forecast using average of period range
We've used the average revenue from Jan 2022 to Dec 2023 to create the forecast from July to December 2024.
3. Forecast customizations
Inforiver offers customizations that can be applied once the forecast is created.
3.1. Action for closed periods
You have the flexibility to retain the forecasted values or use the actuals after closing a forecast. Navigate to Manage Forecast > Click the edit button against the forecast measure > Action for closed periods section.
a) Overwrite forecasts (default)
The forecasted values are overwritten when the period is closed and the actuals become available. The forecast values are highlighted in blue indicating that they are linked to an actuals value - any updates made to the actuals will be reflected in the forecast. To view the underlying actuals measure, navigate to edit forecast > Linked Actuals Measure.
We've created a forecast from September to December. When the actuals become available for September and the period is closed, the forecasted values are replaced by the actuals.
b) Retain forecasts
The forecasted values are retained even after the actuals are available. This setting enables you to compare the actuals against the predicted values.
3.2. Aggregate forecast grand total
If the column grand total is enabled, you can choose whether the grand total for the forecast measure should be derived from open periods, closed periods, or both. To customize the grand total for forecasts, click on the forecast column gripper and select the desired option from the Aggregate total section.
a) All Periods: The grand total forecast will be the aggregate of the forecasts for open and closed periods.
b) Open Periods: The grand total forecast will be the aggregate of the forecasts for open periods only. The open periods in the example are 2025 Q1 and Q2, hence these will be used to calculate the grand total forecast.
The subtotal forecasts for 2023 and 2024 go blank when the Open Period option is selected. This is because 2023 and 2024 only have closed periods.
c) Closed Periods: The grand total forecast will be the aggregate of the forecasts for closed periods only. In this example, the closed forecasts for 2023 and 2024 are used to calculate the grand total forecast. The subtotal forecast for 2025 is blank as 2025 only has open forecasts. The fields highlighted in red are the closed forecasts, and the field highlighted in green is the forecast grand total.
3.3. Forecast subtotals
Similar to grand total forecasts, you can choose the aggregation method for forecast subtotals. The same 'All', 'Open Periods', and 'Closed Periods' options apply to forecast subtotals.
a) All Periods: The subtotals for the forecast measure will be the aggregate of the forecasts for open and closed periods. In the example, the fields highlighted in red are the forecast subtotals, the fields in blue are the closed periods and the fields in green are the open periods.
b) Open Periods: The forecast subtotals will be the aggregate of the forecasts for open periods only. The forecast subtotal for 2024 is blank as 2024 does not have any open forecasts.
c) Closed Periods: The forecast subtotals will be the aggregate of the forecasts for closed periods only. The fields highlighted in red are the forecast subtotals and the fields highlighted in green are the closed forecasts.
3.4. Show or hide closed periods
You can choose whether to display the forecasts for closed periods. To mask the forecast for closed periods, click on any forecast that is generated for closed periods, click on the Show/Hide icon, and choose Hide closed periods.
The forecast for the closed period is hidden as shown in the image below.
To un-hide the forecasts for closed periods, click on any measure belonging to the closed period, click on the Show/Hide icon, and select Show closed periods.
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